Middle East bottlenecks elevate Africa’s natural gas

Europe could be eyeing Africa’s gas resources amidst chaos in the Middle East.

By Leon Louw founder of WhyAfrica and Endorphin Expeditions.

On Wednesday QatarEnergy declared a force majeure on five Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) shipments to Italy.

The declaration followed a sudden shutdown of LNG production at Qatar’s major export facilities, including Ras Laffan Industrial City, after rising tensions in the Middle East.

The Middle East crisis and disruptions in shipping lanes are forcing Europe, and specifically Italy, to relook their energy strategy, one of their most strategic vulnerabilities.

LNG from African countries like Algeria and Libya (which already play a significant role in Italian gas supply) and Mozambique is under discussion as Italy aims to further diversify gas imports.

Gas remains the backbone

Natural gas remains the backbone of Italy’s energy system, accounting for about 35% of its total energy mix. Close to 75% of this gas arrives via pipelines, while the remaining 25% comes as LNG shipped by tanker to regasification terminals along the Italian coast.

In 2024, Qatar supplied about 45% of Italy’s LNG imports, making it the single largest supplier. The United States accounted for roughly 35%, meaning that while American LNG has grown rapidly, although Qatar remains the dominant source in the LNG segment.

Algeria supplies gas to Italy through the TransMed pipeline, while Libya provides smaller volumes through the Greenstream pipeline linking Libyan offshore fields to Sicily. This supply is expected to increase in the future.

The shift forms part of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s broader “Mattei Plan,” which seeks to reposition Italy as Europe’s energy gateway to Africa.

That means secure more energy from Africa and move it north into Europe through Italian infrastructure.

Mozambique could become strategic

Another possible major source of supply is Mozambique’s LNG resources, which could become very strategic.

LNG projects in the Rovuma Basin count among the largest gas discoveries in recent decades, could eventually supply millions of tonnes of LNG to global markets.

For Europe, and particularly Italy, Mozambican LNG offers a politically diversified supply route outside the Gulf.

In a world where geopolitical bottlenecks increasingly determine energy flows, gas from Mozambique may become more than a commercial opportunity.

Read more about energy, geopolitics and Africa’s natural resources on the WhyAfrica website.

Remember that WhyAfrica will be in Rome, Italy later this year to find out firsthand about Italy and Europe’s increasingly important African strategy.

Middle East bottlenecks elevate Africa’s natural gas