Drought hits hard in Southern Africa

Drought hits hard in Southern Africa

Severe drought in the Southern African region has resulted in significant crop losses.

By Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz).

In times of drought, there are always fears that the major maize producers may not have sufficient supplies for the region or may limit exports. We are certainly in a season where Southern African countries have lost most of their harvest and now require imports. For example, Zambia lost 50% of its maize crop; Zimbabwe lost 60%. There were also significant crop losses in Malawi, Lesotho, and the broader region.

South Africa continues to export maize to the Southern Africa region. Most of these exports are white maize, a staple for the area. The major producers of white maize globally are South Africa and Mexico.

Although South Africa is not insulated from this drought but crop losses were not as devastating. This is mainly because of the improved seed varieties used in South Africa and the better input application.

Still, South Africa’s maize production is down 22% from last season’s expected harvest of 12,8 million tonnes.

But this decline in harvest doesn’t mean South Africa will suddenly trim exports. The country maintains an open market policy.

South Africa’s export volumes

We believe the expected harvest and carryover stocks from last season will meet South Africa’s annual maize consumption of just under 12,00 million tonnes. This will still leave the country with a sizable volume for export markets.

Thus, South Africa continues to export maize. The country exported 57k tonnes of maize on October 11, 2024. Of this volume, 47% was exported to Zimbabwe and the balance to the neighbouring African countries.

This puts South Africa’s total maize exports in the 2024-25 marketing year at 1,03 million tonnes out of the expected 1,90 million tonnes (down from 3,44 million tonnes in the 2023-24 marketing year because of the mid-summer drought).

This means, roughly 900k tonnes is yet to be exported.

Yes, while South Africa will likely remain the net exporter of maize in the 2024-25 marketing year, the coastal regions will import small volumes of yellow maize for animal feed because of price advantage.

Imports from Argentina

We have recently seen the imports of yellow maize from Argentina through Cape Town. South Africa’s 2024-25 maize imports currently stand at 230k tonnes.

The imports for the year (2024-25 marketing year) could rise to 350k tonnes. Brazil is another potential supplier of yellow maize to South Africa.

Notably, after accounting for these potential imports, South Africa will likely remain a net maize exporter.

The article was published by Leon Louw founder of WhyAfrica and editor of the WhyAfrica magazine

Drought hits hard in Southern Africa.