Africa’s democratic backslide gathers pace

From Zambia to the DRC democratic safeguards face renewed and worrying pressure.

There is a worrying political trend emerging across parts of Southern and East Africa: the gradual erosion of democratic institutions. There is increased pressure on opposition parties and leaders. Also, a growing willingness by governments to use security forces, courts and constitutional amendments to protect political power.

Zambia is perhaps the most immediate concern. Once regarded as one of Africa’s more stable democracies, the country has entered a period of serious political tension following its 13 August election. President Hakainde Hichilema was declared the winner with about 60% of the vote.

However, opposition candidate Brian Mundubile rejected the result. Following violence at polling stations and the temporary suspension of vote counting, security forces raided property associated with Mundubile.

Eleven people were arrested. Former minister Mutotwe Kafwaya was fatally shot. Mundubile subsequently sought refuge at a UN facility before surrendering to police and being questioned over alleged treason. The government maintains that national-security concerns justified its actions. Critics and international organisations have raised concerns about arbitrary arrests and political repression.

Trouble in Tanzania

Zambia is not alone. In Tanzania, opposition leader Tundu Lissu has been detained on treason charges, while the opposition CHADEMA party was excluded from the 2025 election. President Samia Suluhu Hassan subsequently won almost 98% of the vote amid widespread allegations of repression. A government inquiry has reported that at least 518 people died during election-related unrest. Vice-President Emmanuel Nchimbi’s recent resignation and expulsion from the ruling CCM party have added another layer of political uncertainty.

Strongmen in power

Uganda presents an even longer-running example. Yoweri Museveni has now secured a seventh term after ruling since 1986. The January 2026 election was accompanied by an internet shutdown, allegations of electoral fraud, opposition arrests and violence. Bobi Wine went into hiding and later left the country, while Museveni’s son, military chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has announced his intention to contest the presidency in 2031.

Sustained unrest in Kenya

Kenya, traditionally one of East Africa’s more competitive political systems, has also experienced sustained unrest. Protests have repeatedly brought clashes with police, while hundreds were arrested during demonstrations in June. As recently as 28 August, police used tear gas against traders protesting increased import duties in Nairobi.

Mozambique remains unsettled

Mozambique remains deeply unsettled following its disputed 2024 election. Opposition figure Venâncio Mondlane has faced prosecution over the protests that followed the vote, with authorities accusing him of inciting unrest.

And then there is Zimbabwe

And then there is Zimbabwe. Emmerson Mnangagwa has already signed constitutional amendments extending the presidential term from five to seven years, postponing the next election from 2028 to 2030 and removing direct presidential elections.

Constitutional reform in the DRC

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, Félix Tshisekedi’s government is pursuing constitutional reform amid growing opposition fears that the changes could facilitate a third presidential term. Tshisekedi has said he would consider another term if the Congolese people wanted it.

None of these developments, individually, proves that Africa is returning to the strongman politics of previous decades. But taken together, they form a troubling pattern: leaders extending their tenure, opposition figures facing criminal charges, elections becoming increasingly contested and security institutions becoming more deeply involved in politics.

Political stability is not simply the absence of war. It depends on credible elections, independent institutions, predictable succession and confidence that political disagreements can be resolved without intimidation or violence.

Africa’s democratic gains should not be taken for granted.

Image: Worrying trends in Southern Africa. Image credit: SADC

Africa’s democratic backslide gathers pace